end of year 2018

Spending: Living expenses for the year came to $38,329. This is $5,053 over the targeted amount of $33,276. Our spending was 15.2% over budget for the year and 16.8% over since retirement. We generated $16,746 of income this year from my wife wanting to work (not for money) and some of my old book royalties in addition to the $30,000 windfall. Our investment withdrawal was -$8417 this year, thus our pro-rated, annually-adjusted withdrawal rate was -0.76% for the year, and 0.32% since retirement. Without the additional income stream, our annually-adjusted withdrawal rate would have been 3.46% for the year, and 3.50% since retirement.

Investments: The portfolio went from $1,109,284 to $1,052,876 (a 5.08% decrease for the year). Since retirement, capital income from the investment portfolio has produced the equivalent of a full-time employee generating $13.58/hr of labor income. To sustain the original portfolio balance, $20.30/hr is the pace needed for COL based on spending rate; $1.89/hr is the pace needed for COL based on withdrawal rate. Dividends included, VTSAX (60% AA) went down 5.04% this year; VFWAX (20% AA) went down 13.75%; VWLUX (20% AA) went up 0.64%.

Reflections: A wild 2018 for the market, but everything seems to be going as planned. We entered the year at $1.109M, peaked at $1.200M on 9/20, and bottomed at $1.008M on 12/24. I can’t say that I ever gave serious thought to converting stocks to a more stable form of investment, but it did often cross my mind. A short explanation on my view of the market would be that I believe Wall Street now sees the formerly useful imbecile as just an ordinary imbecile. Given the wild ride of the market, I suspect that many subscribers are curious about my level of investment panic. These are the ten best reasons why I have none: my withdrawal rate thus far has been well below the 100%-historically-safe fifty-year portfolio survival point; the market showed that I retired well below its maximum appetite when the portfolio increased a further 10% above my goal amount by year-end 2017 (and over 20% by the 9/20/2018 peak); portfolio survival is best understood when considering its correlation with CAPE, and nothing has actually changed there (e.g., $1M at peak market value is no more/less historically safe than $900k following a 10% drop); my model still has no reliance upon social security, supplemental income, inheritance, or home equity; I understand the inevitably of corrections and am still light years beyond where I would have been financially if I had listened to any of the dart-throwing monkeys offering their advice over the years on when to jump out; starting a new career at some point seems inevitable considering that I burn through interests, goals, and accomplishments rather quickly; a market downturn due to something like wage inflation is for the overall good of society (and for the good of those new to the financial independence movement); a market downturn would (fairly or not) reflect poorly upon the one person who is already widely regarded by intellectuals as a demagogic moron; my 100-point gratitude list is embarrassingly rich; and I will never regret leaving work since it was for the sake of my physical and mental health, not because I had met my financial goals. Sure, I wish I had temporarily jumped out near the market peak, but I’m also glad I didn’t jump out in 2008/2010/2011/2015 when the monkeys were howling just as loud.

Experiences: I consider these to be my 2018 highlights: ran nearly 2000 miles (broke three hours in a marathon for a second time [course record and state championship], won a second marathon on a training run [course record], lowered my half-marathon PR from 1:25:04 to 1:21:06 in October, and lowered my marathon PR from 2:58:18 to 2:48:30 in December), set a personal record in the 1500m swim, took four vacations (two weeks driving through the heartland, one week in Santa Rosa Beach FL, one weekend in New Orleans, and one weekend in Atlanta), got around to watching every movie we own, got around to playing every video game we own (until the PS4 collection for xmas), got around to listening to every album we own, continued to write in my daily journal every single day since retirement without exception, tackled all of my CE requirements, watched Game of Thrones, re-watched Parks and Recreation, left a stale volunteer job as a natural history museum tour guide to become a volunteer ESL teacher for intermediate students with the Read to Succeed program, volunteered in a voter registration, volunteered as a 1:30 pacer in a charity half marathon, finished Final Fantasy XV on the PC, started playing PS4 (currently on Final Fantasy XII: Zodiac Age), increased my count from 562 to 646 movies on TSPDT 1000 (including 430 of the top 500), collected some more vintage sports cards, completed 60% of my sci-fi novella, interviewed for and dealt with the fallout from five media articles (more on this below), participated in an apparently abandoned 60-second doc on financial independence, applied for and turned down a non-retail pharmacy job offer (bad commute, not mentally there), helped my parents do house repairs, built a new mailbox, completed a 100-point gratitude list, and celebrated my 40th birthday by doing a bunch of stuff I loved growing up.

Media: I was featured in two NYT articles, two Business Insider articles, and one Big Think article. I even created a blog for the sole purpose of getting some amazon click-thru revenue from those NYT articles. Three of my real-life friends saw them (style section). However those articles failed to include a proper link to my blog because some idiotic web designer didn’t know what the hell he/she was doing. You would not believe the amount of incompetence and the explanations I was getting. Sorry, I don’t feel like reliving it in detail. They eventually fixed their mess, but it was far too late to make a difference. Still, this didn’t stop a legion of people from stalking me on strava and facebook. I had to politely turn away most of the people who wanted to meet up, but I made time for fellow marathoners, pharmacists, and early retirees. Hopefully my fifteen minutes have passed. I might shut down the blog because I don’t really do anything with it.

Routine: Comparing my daily habits in 2018 with previous years, I increased my swimming, weightlifting, volunteering (twice weekly), hiking (several treks), movie watching, puzzle solving, family time, housework, yardwork, cooking, kayaking, stargazing, socializing, videogame playing, reading (20-30 books), astronomy studying, and napping. Things I failed to make much progress on were learning to play an instrument (lack of talent), improving my Spanish and Japanese (other than ESL class), being able to bench press my body weight (tough hill to climb), helping fight the opiate epidemic (burned out), reducing internet time (too much political drama), deconverting religious adherents (taking a break), cleaning up our woods (needs it), painting (no works this year), and camping (no trips this year).

Upcoming: What lies ahead in 2019? I plan on running 2500-3000 miles and participating in 10-12 races (including my first 5k, 10k, and 15k). I hope to pace a friend of mine to his first sub-three marathon, but that’s mostly up to him. Ultimately, I would like to break five minutes for the mile, 1:20 for the HM, and 2:45 for the FM. I hope to play all of the 18-20 PS4 games that I recently added to my library, taking time with them and not getting burned out like I did with the PS3 last year. Short vacations to Huntsville AL and Gatlinburg TN have been planned. A three week return trip to Japan should be in the works (need to finalize plans and brush up on my language skills). I might take short solo trips to Austin, NYC (fourth time – dedicated to the natural history museum), Denver, and Minneapolis (second time, since the blizzard cancelled my tour of Paisley Park). I want to bowl a 200 again. I want to paint again. I want to try baking again. I want to finish and publish my sci-fi novella. I want to attend more auctions and baseball card shows. I want to visit a drive-in theater. I want to hit 700 on TSPDT 1000 (once Criterion gets their library up again). I want to hit a golf ball straight semi-consistently. I need to worry about volunteering less and focus on doing things for myself. I need to tackle my fear of swimming without a snorkel. I need to worry less in general, but I also want to continue making small improvements to the world. I want to enjoy life. I want to do whatever the fuck I want.